Problema Solution
suppose a multiple test has 10 questions and each question has 4 answers.
a)if a student guesses randomly,what is the probability that he will get exactly two correct?
b)what is the average score such a student can expect?
Answer provided by our tutors
Some information first:
In the general binomial model if we carry out n trials, with
probability p of success at each trial and probability q of failure,
where p+q = 1, then if we want a probability of say r successes, one
possible sequence is r successes followed by n-r failures.
The probability of this sequence is ppppp to r terms x qqqqq to n-r
terms.
However, we can get r successes in a whole range of sequences, the
number of sequences being the same as the number of possible sequences
of r p's and n-r q's.
n!
The number of sequences = -------- = C(n,r)
r! (n-r)!
So the total probability of r successes and n-r failures is
P(r) = C(n,r) p^r q^(n-r)
a)
P(2) = C(10,2) x (1/4)^2 x (3/4)^8 = 0.281
Considering no bionimal your chance would be
b)
The chance to answer 1 question correct is 25% (since 1/4 is correct and 3 are wrong)
Therefor on average 10 questions you will have 2.5 correct answers, ( considering that if 2 students, one will have 2 and one 3)
Ofcourse that's the case there is no penalty on wrong answer. I hope i was helpfull if you need anything contact me